Is China overtaking America?
"Moreover, linear projections of economic growth trends can be misleading. Emerging countries tend to benefit from imported technologies in the early stages of economic takeoff, but their growth rates generally slow as they reach higher levels of development."
.. linear projections of economic growth trends can be misleading .. why use them then .. is the 'misleading' term .. not an incentive enough .. to curb its use .. platforms .. stages .. linear projections .. from stage to stage .. from platform to platform .. an approach if not essential .. at least practical .. but in essence non-linear
what would be the criteria .. to recognise a platform .. and upon it establish .. any projections ..
.. an analysis of the ever-evolving states .. economies along with other factors .. accompanied ..
recognising platforms .. in the past .. and recognizing platforms .. in the future ..
"In 1800, Asia represented more than half of global population and output. By 1900, it represented only 20 per cent of world output – not because something bad happened in Asia, but rather because the Industrial Revolution had transformed Europe and North America into the world's workshop."
In 1800, half .. in 1900 .. 20% .. Asia continued along the same lines ..along the same lines .. from 1800 to 1900 .. growing with the same parameters .. whereas .. Europe and North America entered the stage of Industrial Revolution .. their growth parameters changed .. became more productive .. growing faster .. reducing Asia's share .. of global population and output ..
"But, even if overall Chinese GDP reaches parity with that of the US in the 2020s, the two economies will not be equal in composition."
how can this be explained .. as both economies projections are only linear .. matching each other .. China's growth rate .. running faster than the US .. equal each other .. in what ever terms this equality is taken .. but the non-equality in composition ..is not achieved
composition ..what defines the state .. for both economies .. and therefore .. the platforms .. the stages .. the two countries are .. upon which any future projections of economic growth .. should be based upon ..
chinese government .. have squeezed every ounce .. that the chinese people had to offer .. without putting back at all .. or very little .. for the people to grow
China can not continue .. with the same parameters .. for ever .. it has to change its parameters .. to create the next stage .. the platform upon which .. any future projections should be based upon .. it has to emulate US in that matter .. one reason China sustains such high growth rates .. it is because of cheap labour .. the low per capita income .. hence the need for having an oppressive regime .. and constantly living under the fear of people revolting against the communist party .. such a state of affairs is unsustainable
.. from the other point it raises doubts .. as to the quality of the growth .. China is endowed with .. whether .. such high rates of growth .. can be sustained after a government or people induced, rise of the per capita income .. as any such rise would have an effect .. on the competitiveness of China's products ..
can China afford .. a rise in per capita income .. the higher spending for military purposes .. along with what is allocated for security indicates that is not .. security because of fear of uprisings .. a result of ruling party continuing to favour a policy of low incomes ..
"Unlike India, which was born with a democratic constitution, China has not yet found a way to channel the demands for political participation (if not democracy) that tend to accompany rising per capita income."
No comments:
Post a Comment